A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
